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FABRICATOR V I EW
A new hope
Danny Williams, MD of Pioneer Trading, gives his thoughts on the recent General
Election and the impact it may have on the glazing industry.
“e Dunning-Kruger eect is what is
known as a form of cognitive bias”
www.ggpmag.com January 2020
Happy New Year! Well let’s
hope so anyway. The
Christmas and New Year
downtime has allowed me to
ponder on the trials and tribulations
of the past four and a half years (if
we include the campaigning towards
the referendum). And I believe that,
in broad terms, the behaviour of
many of us with an opinion can be
summarised by the psychological
condition known as the Dunning-
Kruger Effect.
Allow me to explain.
The Dunning-Kruger effect is what
is known as a form of cognitive bias
(a systematic error in thinking that
effects the judgements that we make)
in which people believe that they are
cleverer and more talented than they
actually are. In other words, these
are often people with low ability that
simply do not have the intelligence
or skills to recognise their own
incompetence. And no, I am not
making this up.
In fact, pre-empting the formal
recognition of this condition some
2,600 years later, Socrates said that
‘The only true wisdom is knowing
when you know nothing’, at which
point you might well be pointing the
metaphorical finger at yours truly…
However, returning to Messrs
Dunning and Kruger, the effect that
they identified is related to people
overestimating their own qualities
and abilities, in relation to the
same qualities and abilities of other
people.
And for now, that provides a
perfect summary for some of the
utter rubbish that we have all heard
spouted – maybe even uttered
ourselves – during the past four and
half years.
No doubt
After the early Christmas present of
the General Election I was left with
an overwhelming feeling of hope
and, actually, relief. The landslide
victory of Boris Johnson and the
Conservative Party has now put paid
to any doubts about the result of the
referendum, fully and finally. Right?
It would seem not. Prime Minister
Johnson’s insistence that we need
to enshrine a leaving date in law,
whatever the state of negotiations, is
not going down well as I write, with
the naysayers all dusting down their
old hymn sheets and singing the
same old dirges that we have become
so used to.
Teresa May proved how woeful
she was at negotiating and my
reader will know, most likely being
in businesses for him or herself,
that successful negotiations always
require a number of key elements.
But of these, the most important is
to have a point that your opponents
know you will not go beyond, that
is quite simply, non negotiable. And
putting a very clear line in the sand
– the date by which we will leave
– will sharpen up the negotiations
no end. Neither side wants no deal:
having this clear benchmark will get
it done.
And now for the mad rush to buy
our windows and doors….
Well maybe not. Through our
retail installer customers as well
as our own little retail operation
in Chelmsford, business has been
patchy for too long now. Yes of
course, we have kept our heads
above water and where a few of our
customers have struggled, they have
been offset by others sharpening up
their acts. But the net result is flat
sales, something confirmed by recent
reports from Fensa, which reports
2019 registrations pretty much on
par with the previous 12 months.
There has been optimism that
pent up sales will be released and
that we may enjoy a boom but my
belief is that business will pick up,
but with sales growing steadily.
And this is surely a better scenario
as with a reasonable increase in
enquiries and conversions, our
factory and suppliers will be able
to assess and plan for growth. A
surge in sales will simply result in
stretched delivery and installation
schedules and disappointed
customers.
We need stability now, with an
end to the unpredictable sales that
prevent any business from planning
ahead, the results of which disrupt
financial control, price negotiations
and agreements and in turn,
investment at every level. In fact, so
long now has this unpredictability
gone on for many businesses it has
become the norm. We will have to
refresh many budgeting and basic
strategic planning skills.
I wonder also if the increasing
emphasis, rising to near panic in
some quarters, on climate change,
might have a positive effect on our
industry? Although an argument
that is repeated pretty much with
every new Government, but which
fails repeatedly to receive any
purchase, is for tax incentives or
subsidies to encourage people to
improve their homes. The obvious of
these of course is a reduction in VAT,
the argument that the additional
sales incentivised will more than
make up the difference in a cut to
10% or even 5% in VAT.
As we move into the ‘Roaring
Twenties’ it makes more sense
than ever to encourage us all to
improve our homes not just for
appearances and convenience, but
for energy performance too. The
increasing emphasis on electric cars
is providing a powerful stimulus
towards green thinking amongst
consumers. Let’s hope that will be
extended to our homes during the
next few years.
Although, astonishingly, we
still don’t know how Part L of
the Building Regs affecting home
improvements will be affected
this April, we can but hope for
a tightening up of ‘U’ values for
replacement windows and perhaps
even doors, to provide another
welcome stimulus, albeit some way
down the road if it happens at all.
All in all, however, I am
optimistic for 2020: And what is
good for you will also be good
for me, so I wish you, both of my
readers, a healthy, wealthy and
positive new year.
/www.ggpmag.com
